The BNP Paribas annual summit in Indian Wells, California, offered more than 500 clients a wealth of key insights during nine business conferences over two weeks. Experts covered a range of macro views, as well as capital-markets and sector-specific topics. Here we bring you a summary of perspectives and activities, including our title sponsorship of the tennis tournament, and our Bank’s community impact.
The macro backdrop: tariffs, inflation and growth
The macro backdrop was a key focus throughout the summit. Despite shifting directives on tariffs, some participants believe that these are seen as more than just a negotiating tool, pointing to previous statements about using tariffs to raise revenue, replace the income tax, protect American industrialisation and – above all – fulfil a campaign promise.
Speakers highlighted that the administration’s tariff proposals would also apply to intermediary goods (such as copper, aluminium and steel used to create other products) – not just final products (e.g., washing machines) – and may therefore create inflationary pressures across a broader swath of the US economy beyond what they target proper.
The resulting risks of elevated inflation and slower growth could pose a challenge for the US Federal Reserve in determining the most appropriate monetary policy for its dual mandate to achieve price stability and maximum employment. Since inflation expectations are not anchored, some noted that the Fed may emphasise the price-stability part of its mandate and maintain higher interest rates for longer to keep inflation in check.
❝ The combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could pose a dilemma for the US Federal Reserve in determining the most appropriate monetary policy for its dual mandate. ❞
Capital markets outlook: knowns and unknowns
Summit participants heard that despite uncertainty, some issuers rushed to tap the market for their funding plans early this year in order to take advantage of favourably tight credit spreads. The market has also seen repricings and opportunistic refinancings since the beginning of the year, as well as a diverse mix of initial public offering (IPO) issuers and some jumbo deals. Yet questions remain about an uncertain macro backdrop that could make sizeable, strategic decisions more challenging.
Speakers remarked that market volatility could trigger fits and starts in debt and equity issuance, leading to a more selective approach among issuers, but not prevent issuance altogether in the face of investor appetite. Some participants expect a strong year of IPOs – particularly in the technology sector, and by marquee names considered “must-own” assets in any market – as well as continued credit issuance by investment-grade players, who have traditionally sought funding throughout market cycles. Either way, prolonged volatility could affect the market for both issuers and investors.
Summit participants considered the outlook on the credit markets for the remainder of 2025, with a foundation supported by significant inflows of capital into traditional credit and an influx of private-market capital.
❝ The US credit markets appear more strongly poised for the remainder of 2025 than the sovereign debt markets, with significant inflows of capital into traditional credit and an influx of private-market capital. ❞
The prospects for M&A
Summit attendees heard that the current environment could fuel new developments in M&A, such as from the potential discounting of companies in and outside the US as a result of tariffs. For now, echoing discussions at our Leveraged Finance Forum, participants observed that many corporates and private equity firms are on the sidelines, waiting to see when to “take action.”
❝ The potential discounting of companies in and outside the US as a result of tariffs could spur cross-border M&A. ❞
The future of sustainability through world trade and natural disasters
Speakers and attendees discussed climate issues and how they can be addressed by the dynamics of world trade. Electric vehicles (EVs), for example, stand a chance of disrupting the auto industry and reducing the prevalence of combustible engines. The race to develop more EVs has therefore stimulated world trade not just in EVs themselves but also in the inputs for EV manufacturing.
According to speakers, a continuation in this trend could lower EV costs, oil demand and related trade volumes, and reduce the dependence of oil importers on fossil fuels. Meanwhile the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) and related demand for data centres could spur more demand for the renewable energy that powers them and lead to further development in the field.
According to one expert, the vocabulary of sustainability terms and labelling may evolve, yet the increased frequency of extreme weather events is expected to raise awareness of climate issues, sway public opinion toward more sustainable commercial activity, and highlight the importance of incorporating social and environmental metrics into finance.
AI and quant analytics
Use cases for Generative AI (GenAI) are broadening across all major sectors and functions, from the development of pharmaceutical, food and software products to marketing and customer service.
Summit participants noted that institutional investors are evaluating their portfolio companies to determine which ones are incorporating AI into their business models. They referred to the emergence of “GenAI-first” companies whose business models are native to AI, in contrast with their incumbent counterparts, which are only now adopting this new technology.
Also highlighted was the adoption of GenAI by asset managers to facilitate and automate non-investment tasks for efficiency, such as e-mail correspondences, information gathering and research. Quant analytics were noted to be not only a tool for providing clear, identifiable trading signals, but also a means to make better decisions, challenge views, reduce biases (such as confirmation bias), and bring clarity to data and information.
Sector-specific takeaways
Both sectors are converging on private credit as an asset class that can provide diversification and the potential for attractive returns, as attendees of our Insurance and BDC Americas Conference learned. This asset class has grown since the 2008 financial crisis, when banks pulled back from risky lending due to increased regulations, and private lenders stepped in to fill the void.
The event noted Basel IV’s imposition of a numerical risk-weight floor on banks that could distort the capital requirements for low-risk businesses and exceed what is actually necessary. Speakers pointed to the higher capital requirements of low-risk exposures and the prevalence of low-risk banking business in Europe, and indicated a greater impact of Basel IV for European banks than their U.S. counterparts. They concluded that this regulation thus raises critical questions on European banks’ business strategy, their degree of risk exposures, as well as the advisability of other strategies, such as credit risk transfers (CRT), to reduce their capital requirements.
Market observers see large amounts of capital flowing into aviation specifically, and more broadly into the transportation sector spanning air, land and sea – including related infrastructure – from aircraft and shipping vessels to ports. Some believe that the sector’s momentum of 2024 will continue in 2025, particularly as post-pandemic air travel continues to improve outside the U.S. And take-private transactions have been a notable theme in the sector as capital structures and the cost of capital change, and as the hunt for growth persists.
Some expect twice the amount of data centres in 4-5 years, stemming from the need to support AI development and an estimated annual growth rate of 20-30% in cloud services. Speakers highlighted that banks and the capital markets will need to meet the moment by financing more data-centre development: the securitisation markets are already financing construction debt, and banks have a good track record in financing solutions. Yet public policy will be crucial to incentivise and facilitate the financing and investment required to ramp up data-centre construction. Finally, speakers considered the effects of tariffs on data-centre development, and noted that there is already reason for data-centre builders to lock in purchasing contracts for goods and order materials and equipment in advance when tariffs are expected.
Community impact
For more than 50 years, BNP Paribas has championed tennis at every level, fostering the sport’s growth and expanding its accessibility through impactful community initiatives. This year marked the 10th anniversary of our BNP Paribas Open Scholarship programme, awarding USD20,000 scholarships to four outstanding Indio High School seniors, and announced an expansion to support ten students annually.
Through the Young Talents programme, BNP Paribas continues to propel the next generation of stars, providing financial aid and mentorship to over 160 athletes globally, including many who will go on to compete at the BNP Paribas Open. The Points for Change initiative transforms every point scored into charitable donations, reinforcing the Bank’s commitment to equity and opportunity. This year, we raised USD26,361 for our partner, Girls on the Run, to help empower young girls through sport.
Beyond the tournament, BNP Paribas Americas is continuing the partnership with CityParks Tennis in NYC, ensuring young people in all five boroughs have free access to tennis all season long. Registration has begun for these free programmes, and you can learn more here. Tennis is always evolving, and so is our dedication to making the sport more inclusive, competitive, and inspiring.
About the BNP Paribas Open Summit
Hosted by BNP Paribas Corporate and Institutional Banking in the Americas, the BNP Paribas Open Summit is a thought-leadership event designed to provide corporate and institutional clients, issuers, and investors exclusive access to forward-thinking perspectives. This summit reflects our deep commitment to clients and is held in conjunction with the BNP Paribas Open, a premier tennis tournament where our values of equity, community engagement, and performance drive our support at all levels of the sport.
Against the backdrop of our title sponsorship of the tournament, this year’s summit hosted more than 500 clients and featured nine business conferences over the course of two weeks. These conferences cover a diverse and comprehensive range of sector, investment and product topics.
Episode 1 features Chris Blum, Head of Corporate Client Group and Sector and Advisory North America, Mark Lynagh, Co-Head of Global Capital Markets Americas and Head of Global Investment Grade Finance, and Ravina Advani, Head of Low Carbon Transition and Infrastructure Group.
Episode 2 features James Egelhof, Chief U.S. Economist for BNP Paribas, Calvin Tse, Head of U.S. Strategy and Economics, and Heather Orrico, Co-Head of Global Macro Americas.
Episode 3 features Adrian Docherty, Head of Bank Advisory for BNP Paribas, and Simon Mayes, Global Head of Financial Institutions Syndicate.
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