Global Outlook Q4 2022: Weathering the storms

Markets 360, BNP Paribas Global Markets’ strategy and economics division, examines the global outlook for the final quarter of 2022 and beyond.


The Global Outlook is the flagship quarterly publication from Markets 360, Global Markets’ team of economists and strategists looking at the key drivers and themes across all assets in the months ahead. The main takeaways from the outlook for the rest of this year are:

Global storms brewing

In this quarter’s outlook, the Markets 360 team downgrades global growth, revises up inflation, and embeds more monetary tightening. They believe that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, still have work to do on inflation. The team also thinks that recessionary fears present a weaker backdrop for global risk assets, and the global outlook remains abnormally uncertain.

Darkest clouds in Europe

A recession looks increasingly likely but the Markets 360 analysts think it will be a shallow one due to fiscal support, among other factors.

Silver lining in China

The near-term outlook is challenging, but the analysts see silver linings in the likely zero-Covid policy change, consumption support and property sector stabilisation.

Fairer forecast in the US

The macro outlook looks less negative than in Europe, but prolonged restrictive monetary policy and below-trend growth are needed to tame inflation.

Storms are brewing in the global outlook, and we expect rough seas for risk assets in Q4. The clouds are darkest in Europe, where a recession looks increasingly likely although we think it will be shallow due to fiscal support, among other factors. We think the US will avoid recession, but it will take prolonged below-trend growth to tame inflation. The imminent turnaround in China’s Covid policy is a silver lining for next year.

Luigi Speranza, Global Head of Markets 360 and Chief Economist, BNP Paribas

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